Slant decays as the election approaches: +0.037 pp per day

Slant decays as the election approaches: +0.037 pp per day

🟡 β × days_to_election slope = +0.037 pp/day (p = 0.054). Polls 6 months out are slanted by ~13 pp; polls in the final week by ~7 pp. Half the headline β decays over the 6 months before the election.

Marginal significance (p = 0.054) and a single-source estimate keep this 🟡. Direction matches the verifiable-disclosure prediction: slant carries a future cost because the election eventually verifies the poll number. Consistent with Channel B (residual / fabrication) being suppressed near the election, though doesn't fully discriminate A vs B.

Sources.

Cited analyses

AN-005 yellow causal

β × days_to_election slope = +0.037 pp/day (p=0.054). Polls 6 months out are slanted by ~13 pp; polls in the final week by ~7 pp. Slant shrinks toward the election as verification looms — direction matches the verifiable-disclosure prediction.